Is there an Oct. surprise for the election?

Now usually I only touch on politics as it relates to economic policies and the impact on the markets.

Today though I want to talk about Donald J. Trump and his impact on the markets.

First a disclaimer on where I stand. I am in the ABC camp. Anybody But Clinton. I see no upside for the economy or the US in general with four more years of socialistic economic practices.

And now back to the entry.

Trump’s economic plan, which was laid out this week has taken the Reagan trickle down theory and literally turned on its head. His tax policy is catered to the one percent, while preaching simplifying the process with three brackets, yet he will borrow heavily to fund a “Yuge” rebuilding of America.

But tax policy aside, a gigantic infrastructure rebuild using deficit spending could be a good shot in the arm for spurring growth, providing it spurs enough growth to be neutral in expanding the debt. In other words pay for itself at the very least.

It certainly could move the needle in the right direction for salaries of the middle class, as good-paying construction jobs are created.

But really all these points are mute, if Trump can’t stop alienating the swing voters. It’s almost pathological that as soon as he gains some traction he will say or do something to blow it up.

Now Trump can’t really lose his base, since he didn’t court them, they came to him. So the bond and allegiance is strong.

But he can’t win with just those voters disenfranchised with the direction of the country and the lack of opportunity that they face since the 2008 recession.

Each time he comes out with an ambiguous statement like the 2nd Amendment comment this week, he faces the prospect of alienating swing voters. The comment had very little upside, since the NRA voter is a Trump supporter from the start.

I say all this to get to this point. Does Trump know something about who his opponent may be in Nov.?

Is there an October surprise that my colleague at the New York Post, John Crudele, mentioned this week in his column?

It would appear so, because the alternative is that he is attempting to throw this election to Clinton with his outrageous statements that push swing voters away.

I take very little interest in polls this far out from an election, but you can see Trump’s support numbers sliding.

So the question is: What does Trump know and when will it happen?

Either that or we are looking at four more years of stagnant economic growth and a further move toward the socialist agenda.

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One thought on “Is there an Oct. surprise for the election?

  1. I don’t believe Trump knows anything at as deep a level as you suggest. He’s proud of his ignorance, of not being encumbered by any awareness of nuance, as you and I must struggle with daily.

    Rather than an “October surprise”, we’re going to get “outrageous statement of the day” (with occasional pre-empts for the Olympics). I expect both campaigns have stuff held in reserve, but the audience is burned out, ready to change the channel.

    Like

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