Jobbing the July jobs numbers

So Friday’s new jobs number for July is buoying the global markets on Monday morning. And like most things in this economy there’s not a lot of there, there.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics say 255,000 new jobs were created in July and that the unemployment rate stayed at 4.9 percent, due to the magic of seasonal adjustments.

Seasonal adjustments to the jobs data is made to smooth out the cyclical nature of say teachers in the summer and construction workers in the winter and a host of other yearly ebb and flows within the job market.

But this being an election year and with the Democratic Administration pulling for Hillary Clinton, let’s look at the raw numbers to get a sense of how large these seasonal adjustment effected the July report.

The raw data shows that there were 144.185 million jobs in the US during July. That was down from 145.215 million in June — meaning the US lost 1.03 million jobs last month.

Not exactly a win for employment opportunities for college grads, looking for work in June.

So figure stocks will rise maybe through today’s trading, but it’s being built on shaky ground again. That’s why the 255K number was so shocking to the Street of Friday.

With a Q2 GDP coming in at 1.2% and Q1 at 0.8$ annualized — which means true growth of the quarters was 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively — how do you reconcile a booming jobs report?

You can’t there’s no disconnect. There’s no way. The only thing that justifies weak GDP is the actual 1.03 million jobs lost.

Maybe after the election, we will see revisions to these job numbers that better reflect the troubled economy.

 

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