With US and European stock and bond markets closed for Good Friday, I think it’s time to look at the political landscape.
Let’s assume the 2016 election will pit Hillary Clinton on the democratic side with Donald Trump running on the republican ticket.
The consensus on Wall Street is that Clinton will get the majority of financial support from the banking industry. Clinton is a known entity for Wall Street.
Despite the thought that the republican’s are pro banking and for less regulation, the Street has a bias for Democratic candidates and use their money to demonstrate their allegiance, since they need to sway the democrats to do their bidding with republicans.
Hillary — like her husband President Bill Clinton — has been a quiet advocate of Wall Street. Under Bill, Glass-Stegall was repealed allowing too big to fail banks to prosper as one example. Hillary was also a New York Senator, so there are plenty of money connections for her to tap.
While Trump is a New Yorker, he is not of the Park Avenue sect of bankers. You do not see him sitting on the charitable boards of the city’s cultural and education institutions. So while Trump is the face of the city, he really is an outsider to the moneyed centers of the city.
As evidence of his outsider status is that Trump’s businesses use Deutsche as his banking partner. The German bank is not a major player in the finance sector of the city. the bank has a presence but it’s not in the same league as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan or Morgan Stanley.
Also Trump is seen by the bankers as a bit of a loose cannon when it comes to his limited comments on monetary and trade policies. And of course his desire to expose the inner workings of the Federal Reserve, would not be something bankers would want to get behind.