Market’s moving (just) average

Market gyrations from day-to-day are back in the norm. Up 80, down 100, up 90, and down ?

This is the tell-tale sign of markets in transition. But which way will they move? Lack of conviction points to lower lows as rallies are seen as short covering.

The idea that the Fed will move rates in either direction this month is off the table, so the gyrations cannot be blamed on that.

Markets both rally and sell off on Donald Trump primary wins, so that’s not it either.

The one constant on the rally side is currency intervention by central banks or the talk of possible intervention is enough for shares to rise. China and the ECB have been the drivers recently as the Fed goes into silent mode prior to March meeting.

The S&P 500 has been trading in a range from 1,980 to 1,999 for the last 10 trading days with key support at both ends of the range.

Today’s trading may move it back to midpoint in the range, but it’s early.

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