So Greece talks are not that important that they can’t be picked up on Sunday perhaps.
The Tuesday deadline and the “settlement” will be announced shortly before midnight Monday local time.
It will be another “kick the can” solution, which will give Greece 3-6 months to deploy its plan to raise taxes to pay off the “interest on the loans” not the principal.
June 30th will come and go without a Greek payment and without the IMF declaring default or credit event.
July 5th Greek vote will be close, but in the end they will agree with their government and decline to take the Trioka’s ultimatum and again no default is called and the can will be teed up to kick further down the road.
If the Trioka states that Greece defaulted on debt, then Italy, Spain and Portugal are knocking on Brussels’ door the next day saying “Me too.”
So the EU makes the interest payment to the IMF, while the ECB will issue bonds to pay for it and we wait 6 months until the next payment due.
No Tragedy, just Comedy of errors.
Of course this plan will not work, but it pushes it to the back burner for a while, while equities will go higher on the additional easy money floating through the rest of Europe.
Let’s see what happens on Monday night.
Enjoy the weekend and go to a Greek festival if there is one near you.